Good decision, bad outcome

Life lessons from the game of poker.

Captain Edward Smith felt pretty good about this.

Having been a sea captain and military naval officer for 30+ years, he’d now become one of the most experienced navy officers in the world. He was at the peak of his powers.

So when it came to him to lead a brand new luxury cruise ship on the Atlantic, he said yes without hesitation. He’d steered troops through Africa in the middle of war, so a cruise ship with civilians was a piece of cake. And it was.

Until the warnings started.

“Icebergs in the vicinity.”

For Captain Smith, this was still fairly routine. Standard maritime practice entails a slight alteration of course, a small adjustment of speed, and just careful steering. The ice posed little risk, and close calls were fairly uncommon. Heck, with the newest ship in the Olympic class at his helm, it was basically unsinkable. Even head-on collisions in the past with smaller ships hadn’t been fatal. Just a few years ago, a German ship that was much smaller had rammed an iceberg and still finished its trip.

Having evaluated the situation, Captain Smith proceeded with the basic adjustments in speed and direction.

It should’ve been enough. But it wasn’t.

A collision with the iceberg proved to be disastrous, and Captain Smith and the 1500 passengers on board all died that day.

His body was never recovered.

The year was 1912, and the ship was the Titanic.

Did Captain Smith make a bad decision?

The immediate answer that comes to mind is yes. Most definitely, yes.

But let’s examine this further. Relying on 30+ years of naval experience, some of it in the most dangerous situations, he made a judgement call that was in line with maritime knowledge at the time. Even the most recent accidents, with significantly smaller ships, hadn’t proved to be fatal.

He took all the information at hand, evaluated the risks, and made a decision. 9 out of 10 captains at that time would’ve made the same decision, and likely have met the same terrible fate.

So what was wrong with it?

Our natural tendency to equate the quality of our decisions with their results is so common in poker that it has a term — resulting. Former world champion Annie Duke talks about this in one of my favourite books, Thinking in Bets.

Life is a lot like poker:

• You get dealt a set of hands. You don’t get to control which cards you get — all you can control is what you do with them.
• Every time you make a decision, you’re doing it with incomplete information. You have no idea what the other players have, and even if you think you know, you could be completely wrong.
• Deception and lies are common and influence the game constantly.

In a game like this, poker champions like Annie know to separate the result of their decision from the quality of their decision.

Why? Because the outcome is shaped by countless factors outside your control — aka, luck.

Take the reverse scenario: imagine a teenager that decides to drive home from a party, late at night, pissed drunk. They end up driving on the wrong side of the road, swerving a few cars, but it’s late enough that the roads are relatively empty and eventually, they get home safe.

Was it a good decision to drive home?

Of course not. Terrible decision — they just got lucky.

It cuts both ways.

So what’s the takeaway here?

1. As much as possible, judge your decisions separately from their outcomes.

This is very hard to do in practice, but try your best to evaluate your decision independently. Ask yourself:

• Did you account for all the information you knew at the time?
• Did you weigh these different factors?
• Did you take the time to explore possible alternatives or solutions?
• Did you make the decision when sound & mentally sharp?

If so, it was likely a good decision — regardless of what happened.

2. Acknowledge that luck exists. There are things outside of your control that influence your life.

Understand that the outcome of your decision isn’t always because of you. You can make a terrible decision, and have it still work out. And you can make a great decision that goes sideways.

This is a tough pill to swallow — but it can be humbling.

You learn not to take too much credit for good outcomes, or too much blame for bad ones.

It also helps you have more empathy when others fail or things don’t work out for them.

It’s not always their fault.